Section 15 · Deal Autopsy & Sales Coaching
15.5Win-pattern mining (mirror of loss analysis)
Designed for Phase 2- No.
- 15.5
- DMA's reference
- Decision Book p.30
- Phase
- Phase 2
- Autonomy
- L1 · Recommend
- DMA's decision
- Yes
What DMA asked for · Decision Book p.30
Classify why deals are won: the right proof, timing, a strong champion, price accepted, a fast response.
Why it matters to DMA: It tells DMA what to repeat, not only what to avoid.
In our words, from DMA's Product Decision Book v3, page 30.
How we do it
- Scheduled for Phase 2, the mirror of 15.1 with the same clean-data dependency.
- The same reading and timing rules run on won deals: which proof was shown, how fast DMA answered, who the champion was.
- Win and loss patterns sit side by side, so the difference is visible (for example, won deals got a first reply within a day).
Already in place
- Won and lost outcomes are mirrored from Nutshell, and every AI decision can be linked to the outcome it led to.
- The audit already reads won deals and former clients to classify the relationship and its evidence.
What the later phase adds
- Win-reason codes with evidence.
- A side-by-side view of win and loss patterns.
The flow
It plays on its own while it's on screen; hover or use the controls to pause or step through.
A won deal
A three-location dental group signed in 2023.
- Nutshell
- AI
- Screen
Where the data goes
The same six stages on every page. Nothing reaches Nutshell except through the write gate.
- 1Nutshell
Source
Won and lost deals, notes and calls.
- 2Sync
Copies Nutshell changes into the bridge database
Mirrors outcomes as they close.
- 3Bridge database
A copy of the CRM data, plus what the AI works out
Reason codes with their evidence; the patterns found.
- 4AI
Claude models, only through DMA's own gateway
Reads notes and summaries; code counts the patterns.
- 5Write gate
The only way back into Nutshell: checked, approved when needed, sent once
Not involved: this is analysis, nothing is written to Nutshell.
- 6Nutshell
The system of record
Unchanged.
The tables behind it
Drawn from the POC's database catalogue: structure only, no data.
PK primary keyFK reference the database enforces (solid line)ID reference kept by id (dashed line)
| Table | What it holds | Columns |
|---|---|---|
| crm.leads | Deals mirrored from Nutshell, with outcome, value and close date. | 26 |
| crm.outcomes | Nutshell's outcome list (won, lost and their reasons). | 13 |
| ai.extracted_facts | Facts from the notes with their evidence quotes. | 15 |
How the tables connect (1)
| Column | Points to | Kept by |
|---|---|---|
| ai.extracted_facts.prompt_id | agent.prompts | The application (by id) |
Worked example
Synthetic demo data: every name, business and number is made up.
A designed comparison (synthetic example).
Won versus lost
| Signal | Won deals | Lost deals |
|---|---|---|
| First reply within a day | 82% | 35% |
| Vertical case study shown | 71% | 22% |
In the running POC
There is no screen for this one yet: it is designed for Phase 2, as DMA's book decides. The parts listed under “Already in place” run in the POC today.
Status
Designed for Phase 2. DMA's book schedules this for Phase 2. The design is ready and builds on parts that already run in the POC.